Saturday racing tips! Four horses to follow at Ascot’s Christmas Racing Weekend from Declan Rix | Racing News
- Jody
- 0
On Ascot’s Grade One Christmas card, all live on Sky Sports Racing, At The Races expert Declan Rix nominates a quartet of horses to follow.
Red Risk
2.25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade One)
Ten runners go to post for the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle, including a pair of 11-year-olds in Champ and Paisley Park while a 10-year-old, Dashel Drasher, also features, but may not want the ground to dry up much more. This trio fill three of the top five places in the betting, which is headed by the younger legs of Crambo and the mare West Balboa.
The former looks a pretty skinny price (7/2) to my eye while similar comments apply to the latter (100/30), for all I would fancy the Skelton-trained runner more. At the prices, on current form, Botox Has (9/1) was of major interest, but his poor Ascot record meant at a big price, an each-way swing-for-the-fences on RED RISK is how I will play the race.
Only a short head separated him and the current favourite West Balboa when they clashed in the Lanzarote Hurdle back in January and while Red Risk is 2lb worse off at the weights, he is a much bigger price, despite arguably coming here on the back of a career best in the Grade Two West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby.
While he ran a lovely race on seasonal debut, he still looked rusty in his jumping, maybe not totally in love with the very soft ground so I do hope he’ll sharpen up, and Saturday’s slicker surface will suit him better than most, especially in allowing him to get home over this trip.
He should travel better than most if on-song, but it wouldn’t surprise to see a couple of stronger stayers in here late, but at 25/1 I am willing to roll the big dice, especially with the odd firm paying four places.
Victtorino
3.00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase
VICTTORINO (6/1) was seriously impressive on the eye over this course and distance 49 days ago and a 4lb rise in the ratings doesn’t look too excessive in his bid to follow up. Sure, Saturday’s Silver Cup is a more competitive heat on paper and the five-year-old must carry 16lb more in physical weight, but the way he eased through the field before winning last time out was seriously classy.
To be fair, it was a tactical race early and Charlie Deutsch slid him through the pack beautifully, but I just love how he travelled in the contest. This race will likely be run at a stronger pace overall, which is a small concern with him carrying more weight, which will likely put more pressure on his jumping, especially on the downhill section, but overall, he is well able in the jumping department.
The real key to victory could be prevailing ground conditions, with some of his main rivals likely to want softer going to be at their absolute best. With the Venetia Williams team still in great order, I hope he will go close.
Luccia
3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy
Current favourite Iberico Lord (3/1) is a likable individual who jumps well and comes here on the back of an impressive Greatwood Hurdle success, but that was a proper soft-ground, well-run contest and this handicap may set up in an entirely different manner. For a start, the ground will be much quicker and there doesn’t look to be a lot of pace on. At the prices, I am happy to take him on.
In the Greatwood, LUCCIA (9/1) was 10 lengths behind her stablemate, but on 8lb better terms in a different type of contest, it’s not hard to see her closing the distance on Iberico Lord. A return to a quicker surface should really suit this strong-travelling, good-jumping mare, putting more emphasis on speed rather than stamina.
Last time out at Cheltenham, the daughter of The Gurkha went through 85 per cent of the race eye-catchingly well, but finished tamely with her head carriage not impressing. I’d be lying if I said that wasn’t a worry, but I hope it was just a case of her getting tired in taxing conditions up the stiff hill.
Saturday’s race looks a better fit for this flat-bred five-year-old.
Moveit Like Minnie
3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy
Also in Saturday’s big handicap, MOVEIT LIKE MINNIE (28/1) looks well worth a flyer at a big price given he will very much be at home on a slick surface.
The case for him is two-fold really; one: the quickening ground and two: his prominent style of racing. In a handicap lacking pace on paper, his forward-going manner, high-cruising speed and ability to handle the ground could easily see him hit the frame.
The Nigel Twiston-Davies inmate needs to improve again up in class, but he comes here off the back of a ready four-length Huntingdon handicap win 39 days ago. This particular day, he looked in rude health throughout under Sam Twiston-Davies before staying on strongly.
Twiston-Davies goes to Haydock on Saturday so is replaced by in-form 5lb claimer Finn Lambert who is having a good season while the yard health in general is another positive. The only negative is Moveit Like Minnie’s habit of jumping left, but hopefully that won’t stop him from running a big race.
Watch all the action from Ascot on Saturday live on Sky Sports Racing, with the Long Walk Hurdle due off at 2.25pm on Saturday